probability of getting #1 pref house?

Just because a girl has only one pref doesn't mean she's on the top of the bid list like legacies are. She could be anywhere on their bid list. Houses make their lists according to their own criteria and don't know or consider where else a pnm is preffing. If a pnm only has one pref house, she will get that bid, but it might be because she didn't match with them initially and is a quota addition.

if a house wants/needs a larger pc, they might put pnms who only came to them for pref at the very bottom of their lists so they automatically become quota additions.

I don't believe those statistics at all. Last year I only know of 2 in my entire RC group who went to their first choice. My suitemates had similar results (2 IS and 2 OS). We had 3 OR and 1 NR. Between us, not one had our first choice. We were in 4 different RC groups and we all felt lucky we had our 2nd choices because so many had their 3rd. Likely 70% had first or second choice and 30% ended up with third choice.

You can believe the statistics or not but they are fact. The reason that the third pref house has been dropped is because it was that 5%.

Fact verified by whom? I think there was an agenda and a push for dropping from 3 to 2 and the data was culled and manipulated to make the case for it. There were big discussions about this in several houses last year. Was that 75% to first choice a "historical average" a "10 year average" or was it gathered from surveys? Going back years to when there were smaller pledge classes and a higher percentage of connected local girls will bend the results. For 2016 and 2017 anyone who tries to peddle that 75% to their first choice is lying or has been lied to and is repeating. Lets get some transparency - show us all everyone's return rates, numbers, quotas, quota additions, drop rate, etc. Until there is transparency and people can actually see the lists your "facts" are worthless. It is funny how secretive it all is and even actives are told to trust the process.

This isn’t a big Alabama conspiracy, this is a cross-campus effort from NPC. This is a policy being implemented at schools around the country, not just Alabama. They’re the ones with access to this data and that’s why they believe the 3rd choice is not as useful. Maybe your friends and everyone in your hall and rho chi group got second or third choices, but overall that’s not reflected in national statistics.

Your conspiracy theory sounds like you are the one with the agenda. Who do you imagine is manipulating data, and for what result? NPC started transitioning to two prefs nationally some years ago, campus by campus, at every school that was using a three pref system. It has never been a secret because the data was published and presented to us by NPC. We knew this was coming to Bama a couple of years ago. Except they forgot to put it on greekrank LMAO.

Right, a cross campus initiative by NPC. So not likely that the 75% number was from here at Alabama. There is an agenda by NPC and this cross campus initiative. So much of what we do here at bama is tradition driven but in this we are following other schools and our recruitment is not like other schools. So "National statistics" taking into account hundreds of little LACs with chapters pledging 10-15 girls and smaller schools that are all connections driven and you will get what is "reflected in national statistics". Almost all of those schools also do deferred recruitment so the girls know much more about the houses and where they will fit before rushing. Bama is its own monster, rivaled by none. Any mention of national numbers to make our local decisions shows this. Again, there is NO WAY that Bama was 75% first choice last year. Too many people read it and believe it as fact because someone wrote it, people need to put our college education to work and analyze not only the data but also the evidence right in front of our faces.

schools with chapters that small don't do this fully structured recruitment. There are several methods described in the MOI that explain how smaller schools can make recruitment work for them. There are many schools like Alabama that have transitioned from 3 pref chapters to 2. UGA, Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas, Kentucky, Oklahoma to name a few. We like to think Alabama is so unique with regards to recruitment, but those schools are all pretty similar to Alabama in terms of greek life. Hell, UGA even has an "old row." Not to mention none of those schools use deferred recruitment.

IDK who you think is manipulating this data, but it must be very illuminati-like for it to impact nearly every school in the country. Again, that's not to say that your friends didn't end up with your third choices, and that's great that clearly you discovered that you love your house, but there's no way you could have found the numbers from the 1,000+ girls who got bids last year, let alone years prior or at all those other schools.

@meh "hundreds of little LACs with chapters pledging 10-15 girls and smaller schools that are all connections driven" are not using a three pref system LMAO; a lot of those real small schools don't even do formal recruitment. And IDK where you're getting that "almost all of those schools also do deferred recruitment" because deferred recruitment is not the norm at all. Far more schools with NPC sororities don't do deferred and no sorority nationals support deferred recruitment if they have a choice. You sound like a salty GDI or a troll, but whatever you don't even know what you're talking about.

This is correct. In the MOI NPC states repeatedly that fall recruitment as close to the beginning of the semester as possible is a best practice.

Ole Miss doesn't have deferred. They have fall recruitment, but it does happen after schools starts.

Sort of; they started a few years ago deferring until the end of September because the school was loosing tuition from girls dropping out on bid day when they didn't get the house they wanted. So the school pushed recruitment back so they were locked into their tuition.

"Deferred" in NPC terms means second semester/spring recruitment, not later in the fall. Ole Miss has a later fall recruitment. OU, Indiana, Vandy and UVA, for example, have deferred (spring) recruitment.